Do you know when Michael Burry successfully predicted the 2008 09 housing and stock market crash, he was harassed by the Government and had to pay 1 million in legal fess to defend himself? Instead of recognizing his efforts that warned million of Americans about the upcoming perils, he had to suffer both mentally and financially. United States government should have made him their lead economist. Listen to what he said.
Well, today I am getting the same feelings. No one is listening to what Michael Burry is warning about. US and global economy is facing a great peril again.
It doesn’t matter if all the economists agree or not on whether the US economy is going into recession or not, but one thing is certain, and that is that economy and stock market is making no sense at all and is screwed for the foreseeable future.
The negative or in some cases zero growth in corporate earnings is making a global recession increasingly more likely. Even JP Morgan recently warned that market can even fall further 20% from the current levels.
With recent sideways volatile movement, stock prices have started to behave in an unpredictable manner going down sharply some days and than rallying the very next day.
While everyone seems confuse about recession, stagflation, hyperinflation, or crash, Dr. Michael Burry is once again standing out with his latest clear cut prediction.
Being a contrarian, he saw the subprime crisis coming before anyone else. Now Michael Barry has been arguing that the inflation will get even worse from here and will erase all the market gains that people might have had in several last years and surprisingly this is just the beginning there is no end or bottom in sight.
Let’s talk about what’s going on right now? Why the stock market is experiencing a sell-off and what is the latest warning Michael Barry pointed out.
Looking at the current trading environment, Michael Burry warned investors that they shouldn’t get their hopes up about any rallies in the ending winter quarter, as they’re likely to be brief respites that won’t result in a market recovery. Market rally refers to the increase of stock market at least 5% in the middle of the down trends. During bear market, it is a common practice. Bear market between 1901 and 2015, spawned at least one 5% rally. Rallies of 10% or even more, interrupted 2/3rd of 21 bear markets over this time span.
Now given the current scenario it is evident that History is repeating itself. It can also be seen that deeper the decline, the harder the rebound will be. For instance, in 1929 the Dow Jones surged around 48% while earlier it fell 86%. Similarly, the Dotcom market also had 8 bear market rallies of 18% including 4 gains of almost 30% before then they were dropped even lower. Great financial crisis of 2008 also came across the 9 bear market rallies between 6% and 24% before they reached the bottom after a couple of years.
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